All this Drama around SWIFT
Sometimes I do wonder what leaders and experts are trying to feed people? Do politicians really understand SWIFT and how it works ?
Firstly, I will like SWIFT to be replaced, because it a legacy technology older than I am. It is easily hackable, and most likely Blockchain infrastructure will replace it. And my guess is that within a matter of months a real alternative to SWIFT will gain momentum, and banks in emerging markets will move to it to send secure financial messaging.
Also, the central Bank in Russia could easily hold RMB and transact / clear through HK. And Hong Kong could defacto end up becoming Rouble-RMB HuB. Who knows maybe the Russians will be able to convince UAE and Indians to join them also. So eventually RMB will over take EURO becoming a serious competitor to USD, and SWIFT will be replaced by a much advance infrastructure.
Russian banks could issue deals in Dirham, RMB, Rupees, Ringgits and clear through a central HuB in Hong Kong and Dubai. They can start pricing their commodity in RMB or a basket of currencies that might include major emerging market currencies ( RMB + RUPEES + DIRHAM + Rupiah among others ), so they won’t need to sell or buy dollar and Euros.
The Central bank in Russia could fast track the issuance of its digital currency, and closely link it to a basket of other currencies in the emerging market.
And there are other options that the central bank in Russia could deploy, and in doing so, completely change the architecture of a broken financial system. The entire plumbing of the global financial system is flawed anyway, so why not replace it with something that works better ? Just who are we kidding ?
So whats the big deal around SWIFT, yes there is some pain but something better will replace SWIFT, and most likely other banks will move to it also at some point.
We have created a generational war that our next generation will be fighting because of our stupidity. In the end, we are our own biggest enemy.
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