Two weeks ago, Russia 🇷🇺 and Belarus 🇧🇾 started 10 days military drills, The two strong leaders are eager to work together to fight what they call western interference in other countries sovereignty.
the exercise concluded on Sunday. Indeed though the Belarus 🇧🇾 government had preliminarily assured that the Russian forces would leave the country, it blazoned that they were staying indefinitely, purportedly to respond to an escalation in the Ukraine Donbas region.
Lithuanian spectators say that it’ll be over to Moscow how long the Russian forces remain in Belarus and not Minsk – the tyrannizer leader Alexander Lukashenko may not be in charge presently indeed as he’s adhering onto power.
Read Further Russian colors to remain in Belarus indefinitely amid fears of Ukraine irruption
“President Lukashenko is too empty for staying in power, it’s his currency for ingratiating himself with the Kremlin,” says political scientist Vytis Jurkonis of Vilnius University. “ It’s only a matter of time ahead (Belarus’) independence and sovereignty, which is being traded, will be fully vetted out.”
What’s passing in Belarus is a “ creeping occupation”, according to Gintautas Mažeikis, a professor at Vytautas Magnus University in Kaunas.
“ It’ll be concluded de facto. Belarus is dependent on Russia economically, politically, militarily, stoutly, financially. It’s basically being turned into a Russian fiefdom,” he says.
As Russia is pursuing aggression against Ukraine, Belarus will be drawn into the conflict, whether Belarus 🇧🇾 wants it or not, says Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. The Russian colors in Belarus represent a direct trouble to Ukraine, as well as Lithuania.
“ The situation keeps changing. Some military units are moved to the Ukrainian border, also pulled back again. They’re kept close to us and are meant as communication to NATO,” Landsbergis says.
“ It’s a dangerous situation. Why? Because Russia has strong forces in Kaliningrad and now, with a presence in Belarus, it enjoys a strategic advantage,” he says.
Still, attacking the Baltic countries is a more serious red line for Putin than overrunning Ukraine, according to Jurkonis of Vilnius University.
“ When it comes to the Baltic countries and Lithuania, there is NATO’s Composition Five,” he says, about the commitment of NATO members to defend one another in case of an attack. “ And that is the red line that the Kremlin may not want to traverse.
President Putin, if he sees that NATO and the EU are weak in Ukraine’s case, he’ll doubtlessly be willing to start a Baltic adventure, too, he says.
As Belarus is holding a indigenous vote this month, Mažeikis believes its purpose is to make a Russian-Belarusian union state.
NATO and the EU do not influence to help that, he adds. According to Jurkonis, the only safeguard of Belarusian independence is a resistance that could be mounted by the country’s civil society.
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